Specialised Human Capital Supply and Sectoral Expansion - Joint with Britta Hecker, Friederike Hertweck and Lukas Jonas (updated: 19 August 2026) [Submitted]
Local labour markets can respond to expansions in specialised skill supply through wage adjustment, changes in labour demand due to technological change, or shifts in the number and sectoral composition of firms. Using a staggered differences-in-differences design, we study these margins exploiting the introduction of computer science programmes across local labour markets in West Germany from 1980 to 2022. Following programme openings, local employment of computer scientists rises by 47 percent without a decline in their wages. The employment increase is concentrated almost entirely in ICT, where employment rises by 150 percent and the number of establishments by 89 percent. We rationalise these findings with a model in which free firm entry pins down wages of the specialised skilled group independently of labour supply, so local labour markets adjust to supply increases through changes in the sectoral composition of firms. The findings suggest that targeted education expansion can reshape local labour demand through the composition of economic activity without requiring technological upgrading.
Do Workers Sort to Firms or Occupations? - Joint with Luke Heath Milsom (updated: 17 August 2026) [Submitted]
On average, high-wage workers work in high-wage firms. We ask whether this reflects workers matching to high-paying employers or holding high-paying occupations that those employers house. Using French and German matched employer-employee data, a flexible worker-job fixed-effects model, and correcting for limited mobility bias, we find that over 80% of worker-job sorting is between occupations rather than to firms within occupations. This is despite considerable within-occupation, across-firm dispersion in premia. Decomposing further, we find that in Germany, two-thirds of between-occupation sorting reflects differences across occupations in the average firm premium within that occupation. The distribution of firm premia differs widely between occupations, and high-wage workers match to occupations with a high average firm premium rather than specifically to high-wage firms within the occupation-specific distribution. Since 1999, the documented rise in worker-firm sorting is consistent with a growing separation of occupations across firms rather than improved worker-firm matching.
Presented at the AASLE (2023), EWMES (2023), SOLE (2024), EALE (2024) (by coauthor)
Individual and Aggregate Mismatch in Higher Education (updated: 19 October 2023)
In many economies, many graduates are observed to work in non-graduate occupations. Does this mean that the level of education is inefficiently high? I propose a model that features uncertainty about the causal effect of HE and incorporates general equilibrium wage effects in a matching model of the labour market. My model highlights that there are two distinct notions of overeducation. Workers could be individually mismatched in the sense that they would be better off if they made alternative education choices. There could also be aggregate mismatch if average welfare would be higher if the average level of HE attendance changed. I find that uncertainty about returns generates the former, while endogenous education choice in a matching market generates the latter. Structurally estimating my model on UK data, I calculate that 32.9% of the population individually mismatched. I find in policy simulations that policy-makers can improve aggregate welfare by reducing HE share by 1.6 percentage points. Reducing uncertainty about returns is unambiguously good for workers but increases income inequality and worsens firms’ outcomes by making labour more expensive.
Presented at the 10th Warwick Economics PhD Conference (2022), University of Surrey PhD Workshop in Microeconomics (2022), Young Economist Symposium (2022), Asian & Australasian Society of Labour Economics Conference (2022), European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (2022), Society of Labour Economists Conference (2023), Leuven Summer Event (2023), EEA-ESEM Congress (2023), European Association of Labour Economists Conference (2023)
Determinants of University Subject Choice in the UK - Draft available on request (updated: 22 February 2021)
Students applying to British universities have to choose to specialise in a particular subject at the point of application. What factors play into their choice of subject of study? I analyse students' subject choices in university using a cohort panel dataset (LSYPE), and in particular, whether those choices respond to their expected wages conditional on studying the subject. I find that earnings, defined as earnings at age 25 or as lifetime earnings, are positively associated with choice probability, although the quantitative impact of expected earnings on subject choice is small. I also find that there are substantial differences in choice probability between students of different sexes, ethnicities and to a lesser extent, socio-economic classes.
Labours of Love: Search for Occupational Meaning and Worker Welfare. With Hannah Zillessen and Luke Heath Milsom.
How Do Parents Affect the College Education Choice of Their Children?. With Adrian Lerche
A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Debates about University Admission. With James Baraniak